AFTER BABA: ODM FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE AS PARTY DIVISIONS DEEPEN

AFTER BABA: ODM FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE AS PARTY DIVISIONS DEEPEN

By Bruno Mugala | October 21, 2025

The death of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Amolo Odinga has opened a new chapter in Kenya’s political story — one filled with uncertainty, shifting loyalties, and internal party tensions.

Barely a week after Odinga’s burial in Bondo, Siaya County, the once-solid movement that carried his political dreams now finds itself at a crossroads. Questions linger over who will inherit his mantle, and whether the party can survive without its founding figurehead.

A Movement Without Its Anchor

For decades, Raila Odinga was not just ODM’s leader — he was its heartbeat. His influence kept diverse interests united under one orange banner. But with his passing, analysts warn the party could splinter as members seek new political homes.

During a heated discussion on Citizen TV’s Daybreak program on Tuesday, political commentator Dr. Barrack Muluka described some ODM members as “political parasites” who thrived on Odinga’s power and protection but now appear to be shifting allegiance toward President William Ruto.

“The parasites need hosts to survive. Without a host, they will not,” Dr. Muluka said.
“They found Raila Odinga as the host, and now that the host has gone, they are saying they have found a new one: President William Ruto.”

Parasites and Warriors

The debate has reignited conversations around loyalty within ODM. Former Law Society of Kenya president Nelson Havi added that the party is now divided between “warriors” who remain loyal to Odinga’s vision and “parasites” motivated by self-interest.

“Within ODM right now, there are parasites, but also strong men — the warriors,” Havi said.
“Edwin Sifuna, Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino… those are warriors created out of a strong system.
But those who spoke loudly at Baba’s funeral, saying ‘we’ll stay where Baba left us’ — those are parasites. Look out for them, remove them, and nurture the warriors, because Raila was a warrior.”

The remarks have sparked debate within political circles, especially after some ODM members in President Ruto’s government praised the Head of State for “working with Baba” — a move that drew sharp criticism from the party’s Secretary-General, Edwin Sifuna, who insisted the opposition must maintain its independence.

Kibwana: “ODM’s Stay in Government Won’t Be Easy”

Former Makueni Governor and political scholar Prof. Kivutha Kibwana has cautioned that ODM’s relationship with the government will be complicated, especially under President Ruto’s leadership style.

“It will not be easy for ODM leaders to remain in government because the president will not allow people to come in and tell him what to do,” Kibwana said.
“Whether they are warriors or parasites, those in ODM must understand that they can only continue at the behest of the president.”

He further warned that if citizens begin to feel alienated by the ongoing political cooperation, ODM politicians could quickly shift allegiance to align with voter sentiment — a trend that has often defined Kenyan politics.

Ruto’s Reassurance

At Odinga’s burial on Sunday, President William Ruto sought to reassure ODM supporters that his administration values the party’s role in Kenya’s democracy.

“I assure ODM members that we will support them because Baba believed in the multiplicity of parties,” Ruto said.
“The strength of ODM matters to me because it is how we are going to have a strong democracy. ODM will either form the next government or be part of it.”

He vowed to protect the party’s space in Kenya’s political system, warning against any attempts to weaken or isolate it.

Oburu Takes the Helm — Temporarily

For now, Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother, has been appointed acting ODM leader. The party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) unanimously agreed last Thursday to let him steer the movement as it prepares for a major consultative meeting in the coming weeks.

Party insiders say the NEC meeting will be crucial in determining ODM’s long-term leadership structure and political direction as it heads toward the 2027 General Election.

A Party at a Crossroads

As ODM faces its first real test without its founding leader, analysts say its survival will depend on whether it can rise above factional politics and rebuild around Odinga’s ideals of democracy, justice, and unity.

But one thing is clear — Raila Odinga’s absence has left not only a political gap, but a moral one. The next few months will determine whether ODM remains a movement built on legacy or becomes a casualty of Kenya’s ever-shifting political tides.

🟠 Kelele Digital Insight:
ODM stands on the edge of transformation. Whether it becomes stronger without Raila — or collapses under the weight of ambition — will define the future of Kenya’s opposition politics.